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Should NVWolfpack be an Official Pollster?
Poll ended at Sun Dec 06, 2015 7:10 am
Yes 80%  80%  [ 8 ]
No 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Abstain 20%  20%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 10
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 Post subject: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:53 pm 
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I have 3 weeks of polling. Brandon rule says three weeks is good right?

Bring on the questions! I ranked according to power rankings so I'm sure my poll looks much different than most.

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:11 am 
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Added a poll. As (un)official OP gatekeeper, we'll accept the application, seeing as next week is the last before the bowls. Yeah!

I'm not really seeing the logic in changing your methodology for this week. I understand what this week represents. But why change it from last week to this week and then plan on changing it again next week?

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:35 am 
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Of course I am a YES!


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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 12:10 pm 
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Crayton wrote:
Added a poll. As (un)official OP gatekeeper, we'll accept the application, seeing as next week is the last before the bowls. Yeah!

I'm not really seeing the logic in changing your methodology for this week. I understand what this week represents. But why change it from last week to this week and then plan on changing it again next week?

Crayton wrote:
Added a poll. As (un)official OP gatekeeper, we'll accept the application, seeing as next week is the last before the bowls. Yeah!

I'm not really seeing the logic in changing your methodology for this week. I understand what this week represents. But why change it from last week to this week and then plan on changing it again next week?

It's a good question. To be honest I prefer using the power rating method for the entire season and then changing after conference champ games based on who deserves it but I have been working an insane amount this year and have been behind on calculating my power ranking system for the entire season (and that's why I missed a poll too). I couldn't, in good conscious rank based on an incomplete system so I have been ranking based on record, eye test, and SOS which I haven't felt great about but had no other choice. I finally had a few days off over Thanksgiving and got all caught up with power rankings which I use to bet games as my power rankings closely resemble Vegas odds. Now that they are caught up and accurate, I used them for this week's ranking but after next week, it's only fair to rank teams based on their "entire body of work" and not my perception of who they would beat on a neutral field. So, if Clemson and Iowa win next week, they will certainly vault to #1 and #2 as they are undefeated in a power 5 conference and completely deserve to be there.

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 2:15 pm 
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"So, if Clemson and Iowa win next week, they will certainly vault to #1 and #2 as they are undefeated in a power 5 conference and completely deserve to be there."

We will put my power rankings to the test:

I have North Carolina > Clemson

I have Michigan St > Iowa

I will bet anyone $100 BCS bucks on either or both games. I have North Carolina and Michigan St. winning the game straight up. No spread. Any takers?????

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2017 final top 5 According to WHO DESERVES IT:
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2. Alabama
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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 2:22 pm 
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So I guess the obvious thing is that this part looks a bit backwards:

15. Washington (6-6)
16. West Virginia (7-4)
17. Oklahoma State (10-2)
18. Notre Dame (10-2)
19. Iowa (12-0)

:?:

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:12 pm 
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NVWolfpack wrote:
I will bet anyone $100 BCS bucks on either or both games. I have North Carolina and Michigan St. winning the game straight up. No spread. Any takers?????

I'll take the both games, just for kicks. Don't know if Iowa can win it, but I'll cheer em on with my BCSBucks. Clemson on the other hand I am more confident about.

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Tue Dec 01, 2015 11:12 pm 
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OSCAR wrote:
So I guess the obvious thing is that this part looks a bit backwards:

15. Washington (6-6)
16. West Virginia (7-4)
17. Oklahoma State (10-2)
18. Notre Dame (10-2)
19. Iowa (12-0)

:?:


Doesn't it start before that?

9. Ole Miss (9-3)
10. USC (8-4)
11. FSU (10-2)
12. Arkansas (7-5)
13. Clemson (12-0)
14. Oregon (9-3)


The last two undefeated Power 5 teams are 13th and 19th? You and CousinsSack hanging out a lot?


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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:05 pm 
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BCSMaster wrote:
NVWolfpack wrote:
I will bet anyone $100 BCS bucks on either or both games. I have North Carolina and Michigan St. winning the game straight up. No spread. Any takers?????

I'll take the both games, just for kicks. Don't know if Iowa can win it, but I'll cheer em on with my BCSBucks. Clemson on the other hand I am more confident about.

Noted bet. Cyber hand-shake confirmed!

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2017 final top 5 According to WHO DESERVES IT:
1. UCF
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson


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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:07 pm 
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grayantimatter wrote:
OSCAR wrote:
So I guess the obvious thing is that this part looks a bit backwards:

15. Washington (6-6)
16. West Virginia (7-4)
17. Oklahoma State (10-2)
18. Notre Dame (10-2)
19. Iowa (12-0)

:?:


Doesn't it start before that?

9. Ole Miss (9-3)
10. USC (8-4)
11. FSU (10-2)
12. Arkansas (7-5)
13. Clemson (12-0)
14. Oregon (9-3)


The last two undefeated Power 5 teams are 13th and 19th? You and CousinsSack hanging out a lot?

I am busy at work and will explain in more detail this afternoon but, in short, record is not weighed heavily (obviously) and MOV determines power rating.

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2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson


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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 3:13 pm 
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love to hear from the abstains

i am going to go yes because history does count for something.
methodology change is assanine imho at this point, but to each is own.
glad to see you official again

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:24 pm 
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Without going into many specifics, I will say that the power rating method takes into account a point spread before the game and determines the increase or decrease power rating of the teams based on the expected MOV of the game. For example, Clemson was expected to beat S. Carolina two weeks ago by 13 points. They only won by 5. In this case, S. Carolina actually performed better than expected and Clemson performed worse which caused Clemson's power rating to drop slightly even though they won the game.

As for a team like Washington, they were expected to lose by 8 on the road in Boise to open the season and they lost by 3. They're power rating increased slightly. It continued to increase as they performed better than expected in losses vs. Oregon and Cal and increased dramatically in their win vs. USC and their blowout victories over Oregon St. and (ranked) Washington St. Yes, they're 6-6 but many of their losses (with exception of Stanford and ASU) have not affected their power ratings as they performed better than expected.

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2017 final top 5 According to WHO DESERVES IT:
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2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson


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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:33 pm 
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Dasyboja wrote:
methodology change is assanine imho at this point, but to each is own.
glad to see you official again

Agreed Dasyboja. I usually use this system consistently throughout the season and then change my final rankings to display more emphasis on record and conference champions but I've been too busy to keep up this year and did not want to display a ranking system that I could not back up properly.

Although some may not agree with these rankings using power ratings, I will say that I've made quite a bit of money over the last 4 seasons using the ratings to set my own spreads and then comparing them to Vegas to determine my bets. Vegas plays on the public quite a bit by making a big deal about the ranking that the media decides to accompany with a team. For example, I made a lot of money betting Texas (+17) over Oklahoma. Up to that point, Oklahoma had been dropping in my power ratings since they were underperforming in their wins. Now, I'm not going to claim that I thought Texas would win the game for the upset but I had Texas losing by 9 so taking the +17 points was a no-brainer.

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2017 final top 5 According to WHO DESERVES IT:
1. UCF
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:37 pm 
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Keep questions coming! The discussion is constructive.

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2017 final top 5 According to WHO DESERVES IT:
1. UCF
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson


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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 6:40 pm 
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Agree or disagree?

Houston over Temple

North Carolina over Clemson

Michigan St. over Iowa

Alabama over Florida

Stanford over USC (I have spread at only 5 points. 2 points if it were a neutral site)

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2017 final top 5 According to WHO DESERVES IT:
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2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
5. Clemson


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