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Should NVWolfpack be an Official Pollster?
Poll ended at Sun Dec 06, 2015 7:10 am
Yes 80%  80%  [ 8 ]
No 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Abstain 20%  20%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 10
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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 7:28 pm 
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NVWolfpack wrote:
As for a team like Washington, they were expected to lose by 8 on the road in Boise to open the season and they lost by 3. They're power rating increased slightly.

Increased from what?

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 8:11 pm 
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NVWolfpack wrote:
Agree or disagree?

Houston over Temple

North Carolina over Clemson

Michigan St. over Iowa

Alabama over Florida

Stanford over USC (I have spread at only 5 points. 2 points if it were a neutral site)

Agreed on the three I didn't bet against. Might agree on the MSU/Iowa, it's close for me. Disagree on NC over Clemson although I think it will be closer than some think.

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:10 pm 
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OSCAR wrote:
NVWolfpack wrote:
As for a team like Washington, they were expected to lose by 8 on the road in Boise to open the season and they lost by 3. They're power rating increased slightly.

Increased from what?


And was Washington State adjusted for not having Luke Falk? The Washington State team that was blown out with Bender, was not the team that earned whatever power ranking they earned with Luke Falk. Washington didn't blow out the team.


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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:29 am 
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OSCAR wrote:
NVWolfpack wrote:
As for a team like Washington, they were expected to lose by 8 on the road in Boise to open the season and they lost by 3. They're power rating increased slightly.

Increased from what?

Beginning of season I take Phil Steele's power ratings and alter some of them based on WilliamHill Vegas odds. This becomes my starting point and then I have a formula from there that determines increase/decrease of power rating.

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2015 11:35 am 
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BeaverBeliever wrote:
And was Washington State adjusted for not having Luke Falk? The Washington State team that was blown out with Bender, was not the team that earned whatever power ranking they earned with Luke Falk. Washington didn't blow out the team.

Short answer, no. I did not adjust for the injury. Just like I didn't adjust for Boykin (TCU) or Seth Russell (Baylor) being out. I realize that losing your starting QB can be a huge deal but:
1. I can't think of a fair formula that would account for one player getting hurt in terms of their power rating.
2. A good "team" should not hinge on one player.

WSU gave up 45 points to Washington and Leach is an offensive scheme coach that certainly should have been able to muster more than 10 points even with Falk out.

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:42 pm 
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I abstained. For whoever it was that asked before... It was because of the drastic change in the last 2 polls. It seemed really random with teams being included that were never involved before, like Arkansas and Washington for example, I kind of wondered if you were just clicking buttons to get a poll in or something. I see now that it's your methodology that changed, which makes sense. I wouldn't knock anybody with a legit method they stick to.


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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:56 pm 
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RodCocci1 wrote:
It seemed really random with teams being included that were never involved before, like Arkansas and Washington for example, I kind of wondered if you were just clicking buttons to get a poll in or something. I see now that it's your methodology that changed, which makes sense.

I can assure everyone here (and most of you have polling with me for 5 years now) that I would never just click buttons to get a poll in. I do take polling seriously and this is the first season that I simply haven't had the time to properly calculate the power rankings every week. I felt that it would be irresponsible to post a poll based on power ratings that were not complete so I went more with my "gut" when polling this season..... up until last week when I finally had the time to calculate power ratings in it's entirety. I wanted to get at least one power rated poll out there. You will all see another major mix up after this week as I will rank based on which teams deserve a ranking now that the season will be over.
Simply put, if Iowa and Clemson win, they will be #1 and #2 BECAUSE THEY DESERVE TO BE. Arkansas and Washington will most likely drop out of top 25 as I will be taking into account record, standings in conference, SOS, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 8:29 am 
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NVWolfpack wrote:
Beginning of season I take Phil Steele's power ratings and alter some of them based on WilliamHill Vegas odds. This becomes my starting point and then I have a formula from there that determines increase/decrease of power rating.

I need to start doing something like this too. OSCAR always gets slammed in the Pick'em game the first few weeks of the season since it's basically just using last year's ratings.

:(

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:28 am 
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OSCAR wrote:
NVWolfpack wrote:
Beginning of season I take Phil Steele's power ratings and alter some of them based on WilliamHill Vegas odds. This becomes my starting point and then I have a formula from there that determines increase/decrease of power rating.

I need to start doing something like this too. OSCAR always gets slammed in the Pick'em game the first few weeks of the season since it's basically just using last year's ratings.

:(
I tried this once but eventually ran into the same problem: a highly ranked team would under perform but the rating would keep expecting them to pull out of their funk. Instead I simply made my rating more sensative at the beginning of the year and it seemed to work out. I look solely at W/L so FSU stayed above Clemson most of the year and Florida did not drop after their uninspiring victories; this is a choice to weigh 'deserved ness' over 'predicivity'.

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 Post subject: Re: Application: NVWolfpack
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:31 am 
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Welcome back, NVWolfpack. You are once again an official pollster. I moved the discussion of your poll to the other topic you created.

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