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 Post subject: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:43 am 
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This year I finally got the math right for the Championship Games (I think). The top 13 most (likely) important games are the 6 biggest conference championships, the 6 biggest Big Ten regular season games, and Bedlam.

The % reflects the boost a WIN gives the teams playing. For example, Alabama has a 35% chance of making the playoff, while Vandy has a 4% chance. With a win this week, Alabama inches up to 41% or Vandy
climbs to 18%; the sum of these increases is the below "19.70%".

Last week Bedlam was more important than the Big 12 Championship because a win there not only sends the winner to the championship, but it also works toward making sure their championship opponent is an easier team. With KSU and Texas losing, the chance of a non-Oklahoman team making the championship has diminished.

Top 25 Future Games
#1 (88.60%) Big Ten Championship
#2 (64.79%) SEC Championship
#3 (58.84%) Pac 12 Championship
#4 (44.84%) ACC Championship
#5 (39.17%) Big 12 Championship

#6 (36.36%) Oklahoma vs. OK State (58.21% win)
#7 (34.44%) Michigan vs. Wiscønsin (58.29% win)
#8 (31.27%) Michigan vs. Penn State (56.59% win)
#9 (28.23%) Michigan vs. Ohio St (58.97% win)
#10 (27.58%) AAC Championship
#11 (27.53%) Wiscønsin vs. Iowa (50.45% win)
#12 (23.43%) Penn State vs. Iowa (50.11% win) this week
#13 (23.02%) Michigan vs. Minnesota (68.66% win)
#14 (22.78%) USC vs. Cølorado (67.49% win)
#15 (22.51%) Clemson vs. Va Tech (73.06% win)
#16 (21.26%) Iowa vs. Ohio St (51.58% win)
#17 (19.70%) Alabᴀma vs. Vᴀnderbilt (77.4% win) this week
#18 (19.61%) USC vs. Wash St (70.15% win)
#19 (19.06%) Alabᴀma vs. Miss St (79.46% win)
#20 (18.97%) USC vs. Utah (72.42% win)
#21 (18.92%) Penn State vs. Ohio St (51.63% win)
#22 (18.39%) Wiscønsin vs. Minnesota (61.84% win)
#23 (18.03%) Clemson vs. W Forest (80.76% win)
#24 (17.72%) Iowa vs. Minnesota (61.6% win)
#25 (16.60%) USC vs. Cᴀlifornia (76.94% win) this week

Others receiving votes:
#26 (16.46%) Houston vs. Navy (53.07% win)
#27 (13.66%) Michigan vs. Mich St (82.23% win)
#28 (13.51%) Alabᴀma vs. Tennessee (75.83% win)

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:07 am 
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The top 11 games consist of the 6 biggest Championship games, the top 4 Michigan games, and this week's Clemson-Virginia Tech game. Tune in!

#1 =0 (77.81%) Big Ten Championship
#2 =0 (58.68%) SEC Championship
#3 +1 (54.95%) ACC Championship
#4 -1 (46.52%) Pac 12 Championship

#5 +3 (38.01%) Michigan vs. Penn State (53.22% win)
#6 +1 (35.46%) Michigan vs. Wiscønsin (57.73% win)
#7 -2 (32.44%) Big 12 Championship
#8 +6 (27.09%) Clemson vs. Va Tech (70.71% win) this week

#9 =0 (25.8%) Michigan vs. Ohio St (60.42% win)
#10 +2 (24.79%) Michigan vs. Minnesota (67.4% win)
#11 -1 (23.14%) AAC Championship
#12 +9 (22.78%) Clemson vs. W Forest (76.83% win)
#13 +5 (22.54%) USC vs. Utah (70.93% win)
#14 +5 (21.93%) Penn State vs. Ohio St (56.66% win)
#15 +1 (21.63%) USC vs. Wash St (70.56% win) this week
#16 +4 (20.13%) Wiscønsin vs. Minnesota (61.1% win)
#17 NR (19.86%) Oklahoma vs. TCU (73.69% win)
#18 NR (18.91%) Georgia vs. Florida (51.84% win)
#19 NR (18.17%) USC vs. N Dame (79.56% win)
#20 -9 (16.06%) Wiscønsin vs. Iowa (61.57% win)
#21 +4 (15.63%) Alabᴀma vs. Tennessee (76.41% win)
#22 NR (15.08%) Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech (78.05% win)
#23 NR (14.4%) Clemson vs. Ga Tech (79.55% win)
#24 -18 (14.36%) Oklahoma vs. OK State (70.97% win)
#25 NR (14.11%) Alabᴀma vs. LSU (77.1% win)

Others receiving votes:
#26 (13.32%) Washington vs. Wash St (60.68% win)
#27 (13.22%) Washington vs. Utah (60.38% win)

Dropped from rankings:
#13 USC vs. Colorado
#15 Iowa vs. Ohio State
#17 Alabama vs. Miss St
#22 Iowa vs. Minnesota
#23 Houston vs. Navy
#24 Michigan vs. Mich St

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:42 am 
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Georgia-Florida is the top non-Championship/non-Big Ten game on the upcoming schedule. But the biggest game this week is Alabama vs. A&M.

#1 =0 (63.91%) Big Ten Championship
#2 =0 (51.65%) SEC Championship
#3 +1 (44.22%) Pac 12 Championship

#4 +1 (40.97%) Michigan vs. Penn State (53.03% win)
#5 +1 (39.74%) Michigan vs. Wiscønsin (56.34% win)
#6 -3 (38.52%) ACC Championship
#7 +1 (29.86%) Michigan vs. Ohio St (59.79% win)
#8 -1 (28.17%) Big 12 Championship
#9 +7 (26.95%) Georgia vs. Florida (53.01% win)
#10 +3 (25.51%) Penn State vs. Ohio St (58.1% win)
#11 -1 (22.55%) AAC Championship
#12 +12 (21.53%) Washington vs. Wash St (55.88% win)
#13 +2 (20.36%) Oklahoma vs. TCU (71.01% win)
#14 +7 (17.78%) Clemson vs. Ga Tech (78.8% win)
#15 NR (16.41%) Navy vs. N Dame (61.26% win)
#16 NR (15.4%) Alabᴀma vs. Auburn (77.66% win)
#17 NR (15.18%) Navy vs. C Florida (63.44% win)
#18 NR (15.17%) Alabᴀma vs. Texas A*M (78.38% win)
#19 +6 (14.86%) Washington vs. Utah (60.39% win)
#20 +1 (14.49%) Georgia vs. Ga Tech (63.38% win)
#21 +1 (14.48%) Oklahoma vs. OK State (68.29% win)
#22 NR (14.38%) Clemson vs. NC State (82.05% win)
#23 -11 (13.61%) USC vs. Utah (57.1% win)
#24 NR (12.77%) Wash St vs. Utah (56.58% win)
#25 NR (12.35%) Navy vs. Houston (63.65% win)

Others receiving votes:
#26 (12.34%) Georgia vs. Auburn (65.6% win)

Dropped from rankings:
Michigan vs. Minnesota
Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota
USC vs. Notre Dame
Wisconsin vs. Iowa
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
Alabama vs. LSU

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:56 am 
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The Wild Card Game is an extra, 13th game that the two best teams who are not in a Conference Championship Game will play. Last year the 11-1 Buckeyes would have had to defeat a Top 10 team to make the playoff instead of sitting at home laughing at Penn State and Wisconsin as they hoped for a shot at the playoff.

This year, once again, the runner up in the Big Ten East is likely to end up in our hypothetical WCG. This game is a necessity, to avoid the appearance of teams losing their 1 game to their division's champion yet somehow still backing into the playoff.
Their most likely opponent is the loser of the Florida-Georgia game (provided that team wins their other games). Nobody wants to watch a 9-2 Florida team slug it out, again, against 'Bama while 11-1 Georgia sits at home. Nope! Georgia instead will play 11-1 Michigan (at the home of the higher seed) for a chance at the playoff.

Appearances out of 10,000 sims:
3478 Michigan
1793 Ohio St
1756 Penn State
1335 Georgia
1059 Florida
1023 Notre Dame
821 Wash St
650 Central Florida
648 USC
583 Louisville
528 Navy

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:48 am 
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Well, the computer thinks the Big 12 is mostly sunk unless TCU goes undefeated. This means the Big 12 Championship is more likely to be a liability than an asset; can someone say "Wild Card Game!"

The Apple Cup and PSU-OSU are (most likely) the two biggest regular season games remaining, but the shape of things is that the 4 CCG for the major conferences not named "Big 12" will serve as play-in games for the playoff.

The American CG is also listed pretty highly, but that is predicated almost entirely upon Navy going undefeated, which the computer assigns a 1 in 5 chance. USF and UCF are unlikely to playoff crash, even if they do go 12-0.

#1 =0 (55.36%) Big Ten Championship
#2 +1 (42.84%) Pac 12 Championship
#3 -1 (42.81%) SEC Championship
#4 +2 (38.73%) ACC Championship

#5 +5 (34.59%) Penn State vs. Ohio St (59.83% win)
#6 +6 (28.66%) Washington vs. Wash St (52.12% win)
#7 +4 (23.79%) AAC Championship
#8 -4 (23.54%) Penn State vs. Michigan (66.42% win)
#9 +6 (23.42%) Navy vs. N Dame (60.66% win)
#10 -5 (22.46%) Wiscønsin vs. Michigan (60.19% win)
#11 +5 (20.34%) Alabᴀma vs. Auburn (74.8% win)
#12 NR (20.03%) Penn State vs. Mich St (76.33% win)
#13 +8 (18.52%) Clemson vs. NC State (78.64% win)
#14 +3 (18.32%) Navy vs. C Florida (64.86% win)
#15 +10 (17.55%) Georgia vs. Auburn (67.6% win)
#16 NR (16.49%) Miami vs. N Dame (60.74% win)
#17 -3 (16.13%) Clemson vs. Ga Tech (79.81% win)
#18 +6 (15.53%) Navy vs. Houston (65.09% win)
#19 NR (15.43%) USC vs. N Dame (60.4% win)
#20 -1 (14.94%) Georgia vs. Ga Tech (69.23% win)
#21 -14 (14.65%) Ohio St vs. Michigan (57.35% win)
#22 NR (14.59%) Georgia vs. Kentucky (72.67% win)
#23 -15 (14.464187%) Big 12 Championship
#24 -15 (13.33%) Georgia vs. Florida (71.05% win)
#25 NR (11.91%) Ohio St vs. Mich St (69.08% win)

No Top 25 Games this week
Dropped From Rankings:

Oklahoma vs. TCU
Washington vs. Utah
Oklahoma vs. OK State
USC vs. Utah
Wash St vs. Utah

And here are the leading contenders for the WCG. Michigan and Florida, leading contenders last week, lost. Notre Dame is favored to play Big Ten-East #2 in this game to be the only non-Champion eligible for the playoff.

2372 Penn State
1668 Notre Dame
1665 Ohio State
1646 Michigan
1423 Wash St (lose Apple Cup)
1297 Navy
1205 Georgia (upset by Florida, miss the CG)
1149 Clemson (upset by NC State, miss the CG)
972 Alabama, (lose to Auburn and miss the CG)
892 Washington (lose Apple Cup)

I want to re-examine the Big 12's chances for the playoff w/wo a CCG and w/wo a WCG. They make a pretty penny off of the TV rights for their CCG, but I wonder if there is a better arrangement; even splitting into divisions might be better (Big Eight vs. SWC+WV).

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:29 pm 
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For sanity's sake I can't hold on to any hope of a Michigan playoff berth after that last performance. Within the Big XII I would think Oklahoma or even Oklahoma St has a shot still if they win out, though they are certainly, again, the most likely Power 5 conference to be left out.

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:37 am 
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PollMastaJ wrote:
For sanity's sake I can't hold on to any hope of a Michigan playoff berth after that last performance. Within the Big XII I would think Oklahoma or even Oklahoma St has a shot still if they win out, though they are certainly, again, the most likely Power 5 conference to be left out.
There is hope for Michigan, though I agree it is small and you probably shouldn't hold on to it.

I suppose there is still "hope" for my Gators, who if they win out will win the SEC and have a decent shot at a playoff spot (40%?), but the only thing I'm actually rooting for is beating Georgia, Florida State, winning the East, and hopefully (miraculously) toppling Alabama.

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:19 pm 
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Crayton wrote:
I want to re-examine the Big 12's chances for the playoff w/wo a CCG and w/wo a WCG. They make a pretty penny off of the TV rights for their CCG, but I wonder if there is a better arrangement; even splitting into divisions might be better (Big Eight vs. SWC+WV).
Apparently, I already check this type of thing, will run again without a Big 12 CCG.

Here is the delta# of playoff appearances (out of 10,000 simulations) if WCG rules were to be applied. The rules stipulate that only "Champions" are playoff-eligible, including the WCG champion. The below adjustments reflect the following outcomes:

1. occasions when a champion (AAC, SDSU, P12, B12) qualifies in place of a non-champion
2. Notre Dame is able to play a Championship-like game to vault into/stay in the Top 4.
3. 12-1 teams who lost in their CCG (Clemson, Alabama, Georgia) can't back into the playoff.

+437 SDSU
+435 Notre Dame
+250 USC
+246 Michigan
+198 TCU
+190 UCF
+178 Navy
+172 Houston
+168 USF
+128 Stanford
+109 Washington
+102 Iowa
all other teams experience <1% change under different rules
-184 Miami
-328 Penn State
-384 Wisconsin
-479 Clemson
-503 Alabama
-961 Georgia

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:39 pm 
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PollMastaJ wrote:
Within the Big XII I would think Oklahoma or even Oklahoma St has a shot still if they win out, though they are certainly, again, the most likely Power 5 conference to be left out.

maybe make that the Pac 12.....>_>

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:52 am 
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I think the PAC-12 put itself in the position to be left out after this week. TCU I think will be in the playoff for the Big 12.

Of course I hope my team can get in there but even if we win out I doubt the cartel would ever let us in. Boise St. has already proven we only get the welfare check that the cartel 5 and ESPN allows.


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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:29 pm 
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KnightLife77 wrote:
I think the PAC-12 put itself in the position to be left out after this week. TCU I think will be in the playoff for the Big 12.

Of course I hope my team can get in there but even if we win out I doubt the cartel would ever let us in. Boise St. has already proven we only get the welfare check that the cartel 5 and ESPN allows.


and what of your not so distant "relations" in Tampa?

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 Post subject: Re: Top 25 Games, and Crayton's Math 2017
PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 7:45 am 
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CFBrocks wrote:
KnightLife77 wrote:
I think the PAC-12 put itself in the position to be left out after this week. TCU I think will be in the playoff for the Big 12.

Of course I hope my team can get in there but even if we win out I doubt the cartel would ever let us in. Boise St. has already proven we only get the welfare check that the cartel 5 and ESPN allows.


and what of your not so distant "relations" in Tampa?


I hope USF loses every week, can't stand them or their AD. If USF got left out in the case they went undefeated I would just laugh because I am evil like that :twisted:

My main point was even when Boise was really rolling. Including rolling Pittsburg and beating Oklahoma in the new year bowls, they were never going to be crowned national champs because the powers to be would never allow it. ESPN is extreamly bad for college football. The integrity of colleges has been in decline because it is all about the money and to do that they have to sell themselves to big daddy. I think the most recent basketball scandals should make this very obvious how the morals of these colleges have declined. You can say what you want about the academic issues of cupcake classes that a 2 year old could pass, but my biggest problem is with the straight out criminal ones. Buying prostitutes for the guys some not even 18 yet which is most states would get you in even more trouble is very disturbing that an institution for higher learning and advancement would partake in such activities.

I personally think they need to bring back the death penalty and start using it like they did with SMU. Somebody needs to let these universities realize that their main function is still education, sports is just a nice secondary aspect that fans and students can use to rally around their universities. If these universities can't police themselves then the lack of sports would allow them to regain their focus on their main goal of education.


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